California Job Tracker: November 2014
In September, the latest month for which regional data is available, California’s economy widened further to encompass more metropolitan areas. This was despite the statewide loss of about 10,000 jobs from August following outsized monthly gains averaging 38,000 during the prior two months.
Ten of California’s major metropolitan areas have now recovered all of the jobs lost relative to the peaks reached prior to the last, severe recession. (See Figure 3.) Seven major metropolitan areas (MSAs) in California had fully recovered their prior peak job levels as of the August report. These included San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, El Centro, Bakersfield and Napa. In September, three more areas joined the “recovery club”: Fresno, Merced and Santa Barbara. The 10 areas combined represent 28 percent of California’s total nonfarm payrolls.
The dates of the pre-Recession peaks varied across the 2006-08 timeframe. Collectively, the 10 metropolitan areas have added 213,000 jobs relative to their prior employment highs. The San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City area has led with a job gain of more than 96,000. San Jose has followed with a net growth of more than 74,000 positions.
Certain parts of the state still have a way to go to catch up. Los Angeles, the state’s largest metropolitan area, is down by about 19,000 jobs from its pre-Recession high. If average monthly job growth were to match that experienced during the past year, it would only take about four months for the area to regain its prior peak. The Inland Empire (Riverside and San Bernardino Counties) may require about a year. Orange County might require almost two years, while about three years may be necessary for the Sacramento area without a pickup in job growth from that of the last 12 months.
While the coastal areas of the San Francisco Bay Area, Silicon Valley, and San Diego continue to lead the state’s job gains, California’s jobs recovery is gradually beginning to widen. This trend should continue, although it may take some time.
See raw data: Employment numbers by region
Figure 3: Regions Where Job Recovery Has Topped Pre-Recession Peak
(Nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, California Employment Development Department, Fermanian Business and Economic Institute